AlanBarber.Org
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
2004 Presidential Election - Not Quite Over
| 50 States + DC | Electorate | |
| Bush | 28 | 269 |
| Kerry | 19 | 242 |
| Total | 47 | 511 |
Well sometime last night after I went to bed they decided that Ohio was going to Bush. So here’s the numbers as of right now. As long as all the states being counted stay where they are Bush wins. You need 270 Electoral College votes to win and with 269 is all but guaranteed for Bush.
There are two possible outcomes.
1) Bush wins at least one more of the states currently not counted (Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin) in which he then has over 270 and is the winner.
2) Kerry wins the rest in which we get a 269/269 tie. The tie-breaker vote is made in Congress. In which case you have two things going for Bush. First is that Republicans control Congress so there should be little doubt where the vote will be. Second is that Bush does have the popular vote so Congress would feel great pressure from the public to cast the tie-breaker for the winner there.
Number one is the most likely outcome. Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico are all leaning toward Bush right now so it’s very likely that at least one will end up being called for Bush.
The dems claim Ohio is the tossup right now but I disagree. Ohio has gone to Bush and no number of absentee or provisional ballots are going to swing it the other way.
on 11/03/2004 at 11:00 AM